Liam Lawson's Fight for 2027 F1 Seat with Racing Bulls

Liam Lawson has driven himself to the brink of a 2027 Formula 1 race deal with Racing Bulls – and, after Brazil, it will take a brave Red Bull shareholder to say no.

The final sign-off has not yet come from Red Bull’s main investors, but the internal momentum is clear. After weeks of uncertainty, with his future hanging between retention at Racing Bulls or replacement by Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov, Lawson has turned a tense audition into a statement season.

An announcement is expected before the lights go out in Las Vegas. In reality, Interlagos may already have decided it.

A knife-edge battle for one seat

Inside Red Bull’s system, the Lawson–Tsolov debate has been finely poised for months. Racing Bulls have wrestled with a familiar question: reward proven performance, or fast-track the next big thing?

Lawson has made the sporting case brutally simple. Ninth in the drivers’ standings. A central figure in Racing Bulls’ charge towards fifth in the constructors’ championship – potentially the best finish in the team’s history and worth millions in prize money. When the car has been competitive, he has almost always been there to cash in.

He also offers something less tangible but just as valuable: a reference point. With Arvid Lindblad entering his second F1 season in 2027, Lawson gives Racing Bulls a clear benchmark to judge how quickly their young Briton is progressing.

Set against that is the philosophy that built Red Bull’s empire. The company pours money into its junior programme to feed its top team. Tsolov, fresh from a standout Formula 2 campaign, fits that model perfectly.

The Bulgarian sits second in the F2 standings heading into the final rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. If Rafael Camara stays in F1 with Haas and misses those races, Tsolov could find a clear run to the title. For a brand obsessed with the next wave, the temptation to promote him quickly is obvious.

There is also a purist argument: if Racing Bulls exists as a finishing school for Red Bull Racing, then Lawson – who has already had his shot at the senior team – is an awkward fit.

That was the theory. Then came the triple-header.

Triple-header audition

Inside Racing Bulls, the three-race swing through Austin, Mexico City and São Paulo was treated as a live assessment for the 2027 line-up. Every lap mattered.

Tsolov did his part in Mexico. He impressed in FP1, a composed and quick outing that underlined why he is being taken so seriously inside the Red Bull camp.

On the same weekend, Lawson wobbled. A grid penalty and an on-track clash that irritated Max Verstappen gave his critics ammunition. Yet he responded the way serious drivers do: he went racing. Seventh at the flag on Sunday restored some order.

Then Interlagos arrived and Lawson tore the debate open.

He started third. He muscled his way past Lando Norris early on and ran as high as second, mixing it with the established elite. The race eventually slipped away from that lofty position, but he still finished eighth on the road – upgraded to seventh when Charles Leclerc was penalised.

It was the kind of weekend that leaves decision-makers cornered. Dropping a driver in that form becomes very hard to justify.

Permane’s growing influence

Inside the garage, Lawson has a powerful ally. Team principal Alan Permane has been consistently impressed by his speed and his calm, race-in, race-out reliability.

Permane’s opinion carries more weight than ever. His contract extension, confirmed last week, has strengthened his position within the wider Red Bull structure. He is no longer just the man running Racing Bulls day to day; he is a long-term pillar in the organisation.

Lawson knows Permane is in his corner, but he also understands the limits of that backing.

“Obviously, they'll decide on what they do there,” Lawson said after the Brazilian Grand Prix. “I feel like Alan's been extremely supportive to me. I appreciate that a lot. And I've enjoyed working closely with him and with the team this year. But, yeah, obviously, it's a big organisation.”

Above Permane sit layers of influence: Red Bull’s F1 leadership and, ultimately, the energy drink company’s shareholders.

Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies was keen to stress that Racing Bulls control their own driver choices, even if the junior pipeline is shared.

“The Racing Bulls driver decision is down to Racing Bulls,” he said. His role is advisory, not decisive. When Racing Bulls produce a “good guy”, Red Bull Racing have the option to promote. How that driver is blooded in F1, though, is left to Permane’s team.

Mekies did not wade into the politics of 2027, but he did not hold back on Lawson’s form. After stepping in at Red Bull for the injured Isack Hadjar earlier in the year, Lawson returned to Racing Bulls sharper, more complete, more ruthless. Mekies called his Brazilian weekend “another very strong” one, the perfect snapshot of a driver on a “fantastic run”.

Inside the paddock, the message has been consistent: Lawson has done everything asked of him, and more.

Shareholders hold the final card

For all the internal support, the final decision lies with Red Bull’s shareholders. They rarely go against the sporting department, especially so soon after tying down a key figure like Permane, but the possibility cannot be dismissed.

To choose Tsolov over Lawson would be a bold play on potential. It would also be a financial gamble. Replacing a proven scorer with an untested rookie at the very moment Racing Bulls are fighting for their best-ever constructors’ finish carries obvious risk.

Lawson’s points have underpinned a season that could transform the team’s budget. Sacrificing that security for a rookie experiment would be a clear break from the pragmatic streak Red Bull have often shown when serious money is on the line.

Permane hinted last weekend that the final call would be one that “everyone will be happy” with – a phrase that, in the paddock, many read as a strong sign that Lawson is staying.

The Tsolov question

What, then, of Tsolov?

One suggestion floated in recent weeks was a longer-term compromise: sign him now for 2028, let Lawson and Lindblad effectively duel through 2027 to become his future team-mate, and keep all three drivers engaged.

That scenario, though, is not believed to be under serious consideration. The focus is on 2027 only. Red Bull do not tend to script driver plans that far ahead in detail; they prefer flexibility.

A more realistic “everyone wins” outcome has emerged. Lawson and Lindblad race in 2027. Tsolov steps into a fully integrated reserve role, embedded in the team, taking all four rookie FP1 sessions and learning the rhythms of a grand prix weekend from the inside.

It would keep Lawson in the car, keep Lindblad developing against a high bar, and keep Tsolov close enough to step in the moment he is needed.

For now, that remains a scenario, not a signed plan. But it is one that fits the logic of the season.

Lawson keeps his head down

Through all of this, Lawson has tried to shut out the noise. He hears the backing. He knows many in the paddock believe it would be “crazy” for Red Bull to discard him after this campaign. He just cannot allow that to distract him.

“I appreciate all the support. I've seen it over the last few weeks. It's honestly really nice to see,” he said. “Obviously, I would love it if it was more from a team.

“But at the moment I'm just trying to enjoy driving the car because, with everything else going on, I don't really know what else I'm meant to do. I don't really know what else I'm meant to say to you guys.”

So he drives. He scores. He keeps forcing the question back upstairs.

The next move belongs to the shareholders. Do they stick with the man who has dragged Racing Bulls into the sharp end of the midfield, or roll the dice on the next graduate of their own academy?

In a sport that so often talks about meritocracy, Red Bull are about to show how much those words really mean.