2026 US Open Predictions: Women's and Men's Draw Insights
The US Open returns to New York on Sunday with rankings, reputations and an entire era in play.
Serena Williams will only be on the doubles court at Flushing Meadows, but the women’s singles draw hardly feels short on star power. Aryna Sabalenka arrives as top seed and two-time defending champion, clinging to the No. 1 WTA ranking with three rivals circling: Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff. Any one of them could leave New York as the new world No. 1, depending on how the fortnight unfolds.
On the men’s side, the storylines are just as sharp. Top seed Alexander Zverev is chasing a second major of the year after his French Open triumph. Carlos Alcaraz returns from a four-month injury layoff as Australian Open champion but short on match play. Felix Auger-Aliassime, seeded third, is still hunting his first Grand Slam final. Novak Djokovic, the fourth seed, is after history again as he pursues a 25th major. With world No. 1 Jannik Sinner sidelined by a knee injury, the door swings open for a new charge up the ATP rankings.
Against that backdrop, USA TODAY’s reporters laid out how they see the 2026 US Open playing out.
Women’s draw: American surge, Sabalenka under pressure
The consensus is clear: this could be an American summer on home hard courts.
Scooby Axson, Cydney Henderson and Danielle Lerner all see Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula extending their Cincinnati form straight into New York. Each predicts both will reach the semifinals, and two of the three have them colliding in an all-American final.
Axson sketches a star-studded last four: Gauff against Iga Swiatek, and Pegula against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova. He believes Gauff’s serve will be the difference against the five-time Grand Slam winner Swiatek, while Pegula, in his view, will handle Noskova in straight sets to reach her second US Open final.
Henderson’s route looks similar but not identical. She also has Gauff and Pegula in the last four, but pegs Sabalenka as Pegula’s semifinal opponent. For Gauff, Henderson sees Swiatek again standing in the way, this time after the Pole navigates a compromised Rybakina, who is managing Achilles soreness and may not be fully fit deep into the draw. Henderson expects the occasion and ranking pressure to weigh on Sabalenka, giving Pegula the opening she needs.
Lerner lands on the same American duo but leans toward a Noskova breakthrough instead of Sabalenka. She has Gauff facing Swiatek and Pegula taking on Noskova, noting the Czech’s resilience during her Wimbledon title run. After Rybakina’s retirement from Cincinnati with an apparent Achilles issue, Lerner does not see the Kazakh going beyond the quarterfinals. Sabalenka, she argues, has looked mentally fragile against lower-ranked opponents and is vulnerable to an early exit.
The projected finals reflect that divide over Sabalenka’s staying power. Axson and Henderson both forecast Pegula vs. Gauff for the title, a rematch of last week’s Cincinnati Open final. Lerner breaks ranks, calling for Gauff to meet Noskova in the championship match.
When it comes to lifting the trophy, the panel tilts toward youth and momentum.
Axson backs Pegula to deliver a landmark victory, claiming her first US Open and rising to No. 1 in the world in the process, a moment he believes would send Buffalo into celebration. Henderson and Lerner both stick with Gauff, pointing to her current surge. Gauff enters New York on a six-match winning streak after a commanding Cincinnati title run, and Lerner argues that her booming serve will carry her to a third Grand Slam crown and second US Open.
If those predictions land anywhere close, Arthur Ashe Stadium could be the stage for a changing of the guard in the women’s game—and a possible American at the top of the rankings.
Men’s draw: a wide-open chase behind Sinner’s absence
The men’s event carries a different kind of tension. No Sinner. An Alcaraz return. Djokovic still looming. Zverev wearing the target as top seed. It feels unsettled, and the picks reflect that.
Axson sees this as a tournament built for Taylor Fritz to finally break through, but not quite enough to clear Zverev. He has the American running into the top seed in the semifinals and falling short again. On the other side of the draw, Axson refuses to write off Djokovic, warning that those who do so “at their own peril” will be reminded of his resilience. He predicts another deep run from the 24-time major champion, but with a twist: Djokovic’s path ends against a much younger opponent, 22-year-old Arthur Fils of France, whom Axson projects to reach the last four and beyond.
Henderson leans into the hunger of the American men, who have lived under the weight of a decades-long US Open title drought. With Sinner out and Alcaraz only just back from injury, she sees opportunity. Ben Shelton, erratic during the hard-court swing—he won Montreal but exited early in Cincinnati—gets her vote to ignite in New York. She has Shelton surging into a semifinal against Djokovic, while Zverev and Auger-Aliassime square off in the other semi.
Lerner paints perhaps the most star-heavy bracket. She predicts Alcaraz and Djokovic will still find their way to each other in the semifinals despite the Spaniard’s lack of preparation and the Serb’s recent early hard-court exits. She circles a potential Alcaraz–Shelton quarterfinal as one of the matches of the tournament. On the opposite side, Lerner backs Fritz, the ninth seed, to ride the home crowd into the last four, where Zverev would await.
From there, the forecasts splinter.
Axson goes boldest. He picks an Arthur Fils vs. Taylor Fritz final and tips Fils to ride his hot form from Cincinnati all the way to the title. For Axson, that would signal the birth of a “new big three,” with Fils joining Alcaraz and Sinner as the sport’s next dominant axis.
Henderson doubles down on Shelton’s upside. She predicts the left-hander will tick off two milestones at once: his first US Open final and his first Grand Slam title, all on home soil, against Zverev.
Lerner’s champion pick is not included in the shared predictions, but her projected Djokovic vs. Fritz final would set up a classic clash of generations: the enduring master against a home favorite trying to crash the elite.
What’s clear across all three viewpoints is this: the men’s draw feels more open than it has in years. With Sinner absent, Alcaraz returning from the treatment room and Djokovic no longer invincible on hard courts, Zverev, Fritz, Shelton, Fils and Auger-Aliassime all see a lane.
Two weeks from now, Flushing Meadows will have delivered its verdict. Will it be the coronation of a new American era, the rise of fresh European contenders, or one more chapter for Djokovic and Sabalenka? The stage is set, the rankings are vulnerable, and the last major of the year is about to decide who owns this moment in tennis.
