US Open Quarterfinals Preview: Sabalenka, Gauff, and American Hopes
The second week at Flushing Meadows has arrived with a familiar crackle in the air. The US Open hits the quarterfinal stage on Tuesday, and over the next two days eight singles matches will carve the men’s and women’s draws down to a final four.
The storylines are heavy with history, pressure and a distinctly American flavor.
Sabalenka hunts history, Americans chase her
At the top of the women’s draw, Aryna Sabalenka has been playing like a woman intent on locking the gates. The No. 1 seed has yet to drop a set through four rounds, marching toward a third straight title in New York. Only Serena Williams has done that in the Open era here, ripping off three in a row from 2012 to 2014. That is the bar Sabalenka is chasing.
Standing in front of her on Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. ET is No. 6 seed Linda Noskova, the current Wimbledon champion and the most dangerous opponent Sabalenka has faced this fortnight. Noskova has the power and temperament to trade blows on these hard courts. According to Scooby Axson’s projections, she’ll do more than that: he has Noskova ending Sabalenka’s title defense and playing a key role in knocking the Belarusian off the No. 1 ranking.
If that happens, the entire women’s tournament flips on its axis.
American hopes, though, don’t run through Sabalenka. They run through the two women who have come to define this generation of U.S. tennis: Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff.
Pegula, the No. 3 seed, takes the night session spotlight on Tuesday at 7 p.m. against fellow American Emma Navarro, the No. 26 seed. Pegula reached the US Open final two years ago but ran into Sabalenka there; this time, Axson expects her to clear Navarro and earn another shot at the sport’s biggest stages, a projected semifinal against Noskova.
That leaves Gauff, the reigning queen of Queens. The 2023 US Open champion added a French Open crown in 2025 and returns to Arthur Ashe Stadium as a player who now knows how to close a major. On Wednesday, she faces No. 5 seed Mirra Andreeva in a meeting of the last two Roland Garros winners.
It’s youth against youth, but with very different auras. Gauff carries the weight of a home Slam and the expectation that she will be here, deep into the second week. Andreeva carries the swagger of a teenager who has already proved she belongs on the biggest courts in the world.
Axson backs Gauff to handle the occasion and punch through to a semifinal against Elena Rybakina, the No. 2 seed and newly crowned world No. 1, who is favored to get past Qinwen Zheng. Rybakina already owns an Australian Open title this season; a showdown with Gauff would feel like the natural collision course of the women’s game.
If the predictions hold, the semifinals would feature Gauff and Pegula flying the U.S. flag, with Noskova and Rybakina trying to rip it down.
Men’s draw blows wide open
On the men’s side, the picture is far less orderly. Only three of the top 10 seeds even survived to the fourth round, and the chaos has opened a lane that American men haven’t seen in years.
No U.S. man has lifted the trophy here since Andy Roddick in 2003. That drought still looms over every late-stage run, but this year’s tournament offers something different: three Americans in the quarterfinals and a guaranteed home semifinalist.
That certainty comes from Tuesday’s all-American clash: No. 11 seed Frances Tiafoe against unseeded Alex Michelsen at 1 p.m. ET. Tiafoe has turned the US Open into his stage in recent seasons, reaching the semifinals in 2022 and 2024. Michelsen is the surprise of the fortnight, a longshot who has played his way into the biggest match of his career.
The prediction? Experience over romance. Axson tips Tiafoe to end Michelsen’s dream run and book a third career semifinal in New York.
The night session brings the heavyweight: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Ben Shelton at 8:30 p.m. ET. Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed and two-time US Open champion (2022, 2025), is the anchor of a draw that has been anything but stable. Shelton, the No. 8 seed, brings the kind of explosive game that can ignite a New York crowd in a heartbeat.
The men’s bracket might be unpredictable, but Axson doesn’t see an upset here. He leans toward Alcaraz, banking on the Spaniard’s big-match poise and history on this court to push him past Shelton and back into the last four.
Across the net on Wednesday, the top seed looms.
Alexander Zverev, the world No. 1, has quietly done exactly what top seeds are supposed to do: win and move on. He meets Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarters, a dangerous opponent on his day but one who arrives spent. Van de Zandschulp needed five sets and three tiebreaks on Monday just to get here.
That kind of effort leaves a mark. Axson expects Zverev to exploit the fatigue, “cruising” into the semifinals and preserving his legs for the weekend.
The most unlikely name left in the men’s last eight is Alexander Blockx, the No. 28 seed, who faces unseeded Karen Khachanov. It’s the kind of matchup that underlines how wild this tournament has been: neither man was tipped to reach this far, yet one will stand one match from the final.
Axson backs Khachanov to extend his giant-killing run by taking out Blockx and setting up a semifinal against Zverev.
By late Wednesday, if these predictions land, the US Open will be staring at a pair of American women in the last four, a home hope in Frances Tiafoe, and the sport’s established stars—Sabalenka permitting—either defending their turf or watching it slip away.
New York has a way of choosing its heroes. Over the next two nights, we find out who it wants this year.
