US Open 2025: Sabalenka's Three-Peat Bid and Rising Stars
Aryna Sabalenka is chasing history in New York, but the ground under her feet has rarely felt less secure.
The two-time defending US Open champion walks into Flushing Meadows with a chance to become the first woman since Serena Williams (2012–2014) to win three straight titles in Queens. The stakes, though, are stacked on two fronts. Her three-peat bid collides with a season that has dipped below her own ruthless standards, and her long grip on the No. 1 ranking is under real threat from Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff.
On the men’s side, the draw has blown wide open. Jannik Sinner is out injured. Carlos Alcaraz returns to singles after almost four months away. Novak Djokovic, still hunting that record 25th major, has been handed a route so brutal it almost reads like a farewell tour of his greatest rivals.
The US Open draw is set. The pressure points are obvious.
Rybakina’s opening, if her body lets her take it
No player walked away from Thursday’s draw with a clearer route to a life‑changing fortnight than Elena Rybakina.
The equation is simple: reach the semifinals and she becomes world No. 1 for the first time. The complication is written in the same sentence as her name these days — Achilles soreness. She left Cincinnati with a scare, and she still hasn’t confirmed she’ll actually start in New York.
If she does, the draw gives her a soft runway. The two-time major champion opens against Thea Frodin, then likely faces Darja Vidmanova. Those first two rounds are less about danger and more about diagnosis: can the ankle hold when she has to push, slide, sprint?
Then the temperature rises.
A potential third-round clash with Maria Sakkari lurks, followed by a fourth-round showdown with two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka. Survive that, and a quarterfinal against former No. 1 Iga Swiatek could await — the same Swiatek who beat Rybakina in the Canadian Open final earlier this month.
Rybakina has never been beyond the last 16 in New York. Now the door to both a first deep run and the top ranking is propped open. Her Achilles may decide whether she can walk through it.
An American men’s window that finally looks real
Every August, the same number gets dragged out: 2003. Andy Roddick. The last American man to win the US Open.
This year, the drought talk feels different. Not because the pressure has eased, but because the opportunity has finally expanded.
With Sinner sidelined and Alcaraz still feeling his way back, the men’s field has lost two of its most reliable hard-court closers. Behind them stands a cluster of Americans who have done more than just flirt with form this summer.
- Six U.S. men sit inside the top 25: Ben Shelton (No. 9), Taylor Fritz (No. 10), Frances Tiafoe (No. 12), Learner Tien (No. 15), Brandon Nakashima (No. 17) and Tommy Paul (No. 21).
- Fritz took the Washington, D.C. title.
- Shelton blasted through Montreal to claim his own.
- Nakashima (Montreal) and Tiafoe (Cincinnati) both reached finals.
It’s not a question of whether they can win a match or two at home. The question, at last, is whether one of them can handle two weeks of expectation and finally carry an American flag into the men’s trophy ceremony again.
Pegula’s cleanest shot yet
Jessica Pegula has been clear about her ambition.
Her goal is not a deep run. It’s the trophy.
The draw, for once, gives her a path that doesn’t feel booby-trapped from the opening bell. Pegula starts against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, then gets the winner of Venus Williams versus Sofia Kenin — a marquee first-round name, but not a top seed.
From there, the steps are measured. A possible third-round meeting with No. 31 Leylah Fernandez, the 2021 US Open finalist, then a likely fourth-round clash with No. 16 Sorana Cirstea, a player Pegula leads 3–1 in their head-to-head.
The real turbulence arrives in the quarterfinals, where No. 7 Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina could stand in her way. Survive that and she’s probably staring at Sabalenka in the semifinals.
That matchup has defined Pegula’s ceiling on this stage. Sabalenka beat her in the 2024 US Open final in straight sets and knocked her out in last year’s semifinals. If Pegula really intends to change her story in New York, it almost certainly runs through the same opponent again.
First-round theatre from the opening day
The schedule-makers won’t need long to get Arthur Ashe Stadium humming.
On the men’s side, No. 10 seed Arthur Fils draws Stefanos Tsitsipas in a first-round clash that feels like a second week match. Fils is riding the high of his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, where he overpowered Tiafoe in three sets. Tsitsipas has not reached the third round at any major this season, but he remains a two-time Grand Slam finalist (2021 French Open, 2023 Australian Open) with the weapons to turn any match into a shootout.
The women’s draw delivers its own early intrigue with No. 20 Maja Chwalińska, the 2026 French Open finalist, against American shot-maker Taylor Townsend. Townsend has made New York her stage before, reaching the fourth round twice, including last year. Under the lights, with a home crowd, that matchup has all the makings of a first-week classic.
Djokovic’s brutal road to 25
For Novak Djokovic, the number 25 hangs over everything.
One more major title would move him past every man and woman in history. The draw he’s been handed makes that chase feel like a mountain.
He opens against Mariano Navone in their first career meeting, but the difficulty spikes almost immediately. A second-round encounter with Matteo Berrettini, the 2021 Wimbledon finalist, or three-time major champion Stan Wawrinka could drag him into a physical war before the first weekend is over.
From there, the names stack up: No. 27 Tomas Etcheverry as a possible third-round opponent. No. 16 Brandon Nakashima or No. 23 Andrey Rublev in the fourth. No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, a former US Open champion, likely waiting in the quarterfinals.
Survive all of that and Djokovic could run into No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, No. 8 Ben Shelton or No. 10 Arthur Fils in the semifinals. Then, if seedings hold, No. 1 Alexander Zverev in the final.
At 39, Djokovic has seen every kind of draw. This one, though, asks if he can still endure the heaviest gauntlet the sport can throw at him over two weeks in New York.
Sabalenka and the weight of a three‑peat
Aryna Sabalenka has stood on this kind of brink before.
In 2025, she arrived in Melbourne with a chance to win three straight Australian Open titles. Elena Rybakina slammed that door shut. Now Sabalenka returns to New York with another shot at a three‑peat, only this time the context is harsher.
She hasn’t lifted a Grand Slam trophy this season. Her nearly 100-week stay at No. 1 is under siege. And her draw is unforgiving.
Sabalenka could meet No. 27 Barbora Krejcikova in the third round, a former Roland Garros champion with the kind of all-court craft that can disrupt any power hitter. No. 15 Diana Shnaider looms in the fourth round, then No. 6 Linda Noskova — the 2026 Wimbledon winner — in the quarterfinals.
The task is clear: defend a title, protect a ranking, and rewrite the narrative of her season, all while the field lines up to take their shot at the top seed.
Gauff’s harsh reward for hot form
Calling Coco Gauff a “loser” of the draw feels wrong when she just lifted the Cincinnati Open trophy. The bracket, though, is ruthless.
Her second round could bring Paula Badosa or Daria Kasatkina, both unseeded, both dangerous. Badosa, a former top-10 player, beat Gauff on grass in Berlin in June. Kasatkina, with her variety and court sense, remains one of the trickiest puzzles on tour.
The third round could pit Gauff against No. 28 Sara Bejlek in a quick-fire rematch of their Cincinnati semifinal, which Gauff won 6–4, 6–1 before beating Pegula in the final.
The fourth round won’t ease up. No. 14 Iva Jovic or No. 17 Alexandra Eala could be waiting there, both rising forces with nothing to lose.
Reach the quarterfinals for a third time in New York, and the names get bigger. No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the reigning French Open champion, could stand across the net. Gauff has won all five of their meetings, including on clay in the Italian Open quarterfinals this year, but Andreeva has since proven she can close out a major.
There’s also the possibility of a blockbuster all-American quarterfinal against No. 10 seed Amanda Anisimova. Anisimova leads their head-to-head 2–1 and was a finalist here last year.
And if Gauff keeps marching? No. 2 Rybakina or No. 8 Swiatek could be waiting in the semifinals. Rybakina owns two majors and the current Australian Open title. Swiatek, with six Grand Slam singles trophies and a 125-week stint at No. 1, knows exactly how to suffocate a big-stage atmosphere.
Gauff has the form. The question is whether even that will be enough to navigate this minefield.
Tiafoe’s favorite stage, under a cloud
Frances Tiafoe has built the best moments of his career in New York. Two of his three Grand Slam semifinals (2022, 2024) have come at the US Open. The city fits him. The crowd feeds him.
This time, his own body might not.
Earlier this month he had surgery to remove a cyst from his right hand, then ignored medical advice to play Cincinnati anyway. It almost worked. He reached the final, beating a string of opponents before falling 6–3, 1–6, 6–0 to Arthur Fils. During that match he took a medical timeout and later withdrew from US Open mixed doubles, raising fresh doubts about his fitness.
The draw gives him a gentle start. He opens against fellow American Martin Damm Jr., then likely faces Aleksandar Vukic in the second round — opponents he already owns winning records against.
After that, the hill turns into a cliff. No. 7 Daniil Medvedev could be waiting in the fourth round, No. 4 Djokovic in the quarterfinals, and No. 2 Alcaraz in the semifinals.
For a player who thrives on emotion and momentum, the question is whether his hand, not his heart, can hold up to that kind of run.
Venus Williams, one more time under the lights
Serena Williams has already given this US Open a flash of nostalgia with her mixed doubles quarterfinal run alongside Carlos Alcaraz. Now it’s Venus Williams’ turn to step back into the glare.
At 46, Venus arrives for her 26th US Open, a wild card in the main draw and a living thread to a different era. The draw, though, shows no sentimentality.
She opens against Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion and a proven force on hard courts. Venus played singles here last year and at the Australian Open earlier this season, losing in the first round both times. The margin for error at this level has vanished.
Her path is unforgiving. The stage, as ever in New York, is not. The crowd will roar, the night will feel familiar, and the question will hang over the tournament:
In a field this open, with legends chasing history and new stars circling, who will walk out of Flushing Meadows having changed their career forever?
