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Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

St. James' Park hosts an intriguing Premier League clash on 19 September 2026 as Newcastle welcome newly resurgent Hull City. The hosts sit mid-table in 12th with 5 points from their opening four matches, while the visitors have started impressively, occupying 4th place with 8 points and an unbeaten record.

For Newcastle, this is about turning a solid but unspectacular start into real momentum at home, where they have drawn both league games so far. Hull City, meanwhile, arrive with one of the most robust defensive records in the division and the confidence of being unbeaten, making this a fascinating test of Newcastle’s attacking intent against Hull’s organisation and discipline.

With the betting markets strongly favouring a home win but performance metrics and prediction models leaning towards Hull City avoiding defeat, this fixture shapes up as one of the more nuanced Premier League betting opportunities of the weekend.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

  • Newcastle are 12th with 5 points from 4 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 8.
  • The last meeting on 27 July 2024 saw Newcastle beat Hull City 2-0 away in a club friendly at The MKM Stadium.
  • Hull City have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 Premier League matches this season, conceding just 2 goals in total.

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 12 vs 4
  • Points: 5 vs 8
  • Goals For: 7 vs 5
  • Goals Against: 8 vs 2
  • Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

After four rounds, Newcastle’s campaign has been mixed. They have found the net 7 times across 4 matches, an average of 1.8 goals per game, but an equally leaky defence has shipped 8 (2.0 per game). Their home record shows two draws from two, with 4 scored and 4 conceded, underlining both their attacking threat and defensive vulnerability at St. James' Park.

Hull City, by contrast, have built their early-season success on defensive solidity. Sitting 4th with 8 points, they are unbeaten (2 wins, 2 draws) and have conceded only 2 goals in 4 matches, averaging just 0.5 goals against per game. They have kept clean sheets in both home fixtures and one of two away, while scoring a steady 1.3 goals per match. The standings context suggests Newcastle are more expansive but less controlled, while Hull City are compact, efficient, and hard to break down.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

With limited attacking stat leaders available for Newcastle, Yoane Wissa stands out from the disciplinary charts as a high-involvement midfielder/attacker. He has 1 goal and 1 assist from 4 appearances, plus 7 shots (2 on target) and 4 key passes across 64 total passes at 68% accuracy. His 61 duels and 11 fouls drawn underline how often he is at the heart of Newcastle’s forward play, both with and without the ball.

For Hull City, Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi is the clear attacking reference point. In 4 appearances (all starts, 315 minutes), he has 2 goals and 1 assist, with 8 shots (3 on target) and 3 key passes. His 7.22 average rating, coupled with 10 tackles, 3 blocks and 9 interceptions, shows he contributes significantly on both sides of the ball. The duel between Wissa’s direct running and Belloumi’s all-round influence could tilt the balance of attacking momentum.

J. Murphy vs O. McBurnie

Jacob Murphy’s numbers, though from limited minutes (92 across 4 appearances), highlight his role as an impact option. He has 2 yellow cards already, 3 fouls drawn and 2 committed, plus 2 successful tackles and 7 duels won from 15. His aggression and willingness to engage could be important against a physically strong Hull back line, but his disciplinary record is a risk in a tight game.

Oliver McBurnie, leading Hull City’s forward line, offers a different profile. In 4 starts (352 minutes), he has 1 assist and 6 shots (3 on target), but his biggest contribution is in duels and link play: 74 duels contested with 36 won, 9 fouls drawn and 5 committed. He also has 2 yellow cards and appears in the top red cards list, though he has not yet been sent off this season. His aerial and physical presence will test Newcastle’s centre-backs and could pin them back, freeing space for Belloumi and others.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head history between Newcastle and Hull City spans friendlies, cup ties and Premier League meetings, with several high-scoring encounters and a notable penalty shootout.

  • 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull City won 3-1 on penalties)
  • 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
  • 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
  • 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of styles. Newcastle’s league form line of LDWD (from the standings) and attacking averages of 1.8 goals for and 2.0 against indicate open, high-event matches. Hull City’s WWDD record and just 2 goals conceded in 4 games point to a disciplined side comfortable in low-scoring contests.

The prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance of victory, with draw and Hull City each at 45%. That strongly favours Hull City on the “win or draw” axis, despite the betting markets installing Newcastle as clear favourites. The comparison indices underline this: Hull lead on form (62 vs 38) and defence (80 vs 20), while Newcastle edge attack (58 vs 42). Taken together, the numbers point towards a tight game where Hull’s structure frustrates Newcastle’s attack.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form reads LDWD in chronological order. That sequence reflects inconsistency: one win, two draws and one defeat from four, with no home victories yet but two draws at St. James' Park. They have scored in every match and have yet to fail to score this season, but defensive lapses have prevented them from turning performances into a stronger points tally.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City’s Premier League form line is WWDD, showing a strong start. Two early wins built momentum, and they have since maintained their unbeaten status with two draws. Across these four games they have conceded just twice, with three clean sheets and no defeats. The pattern is of a side that starts games well, keeps control, and rarely allows opponents many clear chances.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, T. Livramento, L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Willock, J. Murphy; Forwards: Y. Wissa, H. Barnes.

Newcastle’s squad profile and season statistics point towards a 4-2-3-1 shape, which has been their most used formation in 2026. Nick Pope is the senior goalkeeper option, with Sven Botman and Dan Burn likely to form the core of the back line alongside full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall. In midfield, Joelinton and Nico González provide physicality and distribution, with Joe Willock adding forward runs. Further ahead, Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes offer width and directness, while Yoane Wissa’s work rate and ability to both score and assist make him a natural focal point in the attacking line.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: L. Coyle, J. Egan, S. Ajayi, C. Hughes, R. Giles; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, M. Belloumi; Forwards: O. McBurnie, J. Gelhardt.

Hull City have consistently lined up in a 5-4-1 this season, and that is likely to continue at St. James' Park. Jack Butland anchors a back five that could feature experienced figures like L. Coyle, J. Egan and S. Ajayi, with C. Hughes and R. Giles as additional defensive options or wing-backs. In midfield, Hidemasa Morita and Eliot Matazo can provide balance and ball-winning, allowing M. Belloumi to operate as the creative hub and main goal threat from advanced midfield. Up front, O. McBurnie’s physical presence as a lone striker, supported by the movement of someone like Joe Gelhardt, fits the side’s compact, counter-attacking identity.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

  • None reported.

Hull City:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Below are three data-driven betting angles based on current form, head-to-head history, and available odds.

  • Result Tip: Double chance – Draw or Hull City. The prediction model assigns just a 10% chance to a Newcastle win, with draw and Hull City each at 45%. Hull are unbeaten (WWDD) with only 2 goals conceded, while Newcastle are winless at home so far. Despite this, bookmakers price Newcastle as strong favourites at around 1.53–1.63 (implied probability roughly 61–65%), with Hull City out at 4.76–5.49 (≈18–21%) and the draw at 3.84–4.52 (≈22–26%). The discrepancy between performance data and market prices makes “draw or Hull City” a logical, conservative result angle.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 total goals. Newcastle’s matches have been relatively high scoring (7 for, 8 against in 4 games), but Hull City’s defensive record is exceptional: just 2 conceded in 4, with 3 clean sheets. Hull’s own scoring rate (1.3 per game) is solid but not explosive, and their 5-4-1 structure tends to slow games down. With both teams’ under/over profiles at league level showing no matches going over 2.5 for Hull and none over 2.5 for Newcastle in the early sample, the numbers lean towards a cagey contest. Look for the best available Under 2.5 line in the goals market.
  • Value Tip: M. Belloumi to score or assist. From the player markets, Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi stands out as Hull City’s key attacking contributor with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances, plus 8 shots (3 on target) and 3 key passes. He is heavily involved in both shooting and chance creation, and Newcastle concede an average of 2.0 goals per game. While specific player prop odds are not listed here, any price that does not reflect his central role (for example, a long price on Belloumi to score or register a goal contribution) would represent value relative to his current output.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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