How One Rule Change is Shaping the Future of ODI Cricket

England faced defeat against Sri Lanka in the second one-day international at Headingley, and their coach Brendon McCullum addressed the team afterward. "The game has changed a bit," he noted, pointing to the ball's evolving role.

The shift McCullum mentioned refers to reverse swing—the phenomenon where an older ball moves through the air opposite to the usual direction.

What Changed in the Rules?

In July 2025, ODI playing conditions were altered to allow captains, after 34 overs, to choose which of the two white balls used at either end would be employed for the remainder of the innings. This means the selected ball can age and roughen up more than before, bringing reverse swing back into prominence.

This rule change has sparked a revival of reverse swing, influencing the format and introducing new strategic possibilities less than a year before the upcoming World Cup.

Impact on Bowling and Batting

Take Sam Curran’s performance during England's third ODI against India at Lord's in July: in his final spell, he achieved more than twice the amount of swing with the old ball compared to the start of the innings. Conversely, a year earlier, Saqib Mahmood saw less than half the swing at the death compared to the beginning in a match against West Indies.

Such examples highlight a global trend. The move to use one ball for the last 16 overs was intended to assist bowlers—and it’s working.

• Percentage of deliveries from pacers swinging over 1 degree in the last 10 overs: 50% since the rule change, up from 35%
• Pace bowlers’ economy rate in final five overs: dropped from 8.40 to 7.95 runs per over
• Bowling average for pacers: decreased from 19.2 runs per wicket to 18.3

Batting at the death has become noticeably tougher.

England Leading the Pack

With reverse swing active, pacers now bowl fuller and aim more for inswing deliveries. Sri Lanka used this tactic effectively against England at Headingley, delivering 69% of their balls six meters or closer to the stumps, helping them secure a 16-run win.

Despite that loss, England have arguably gained the most from the rule adjustment, though they’ve also improved their overall ODI game this year. Their death bowling numbers since July 2025 are striking:

• Bowling average: from 36.76 down to 20.91
• Economy rate: from 9.78 to 7.53 runs per over
• Batting run-rate: increased from 8.07 to 9.16

After the Headingley defeat, McCullum urged his squad to rethink tactics in light of these changes. At The Oval three days later, England accelerated from 104-2 to 214-2 in 10 overs before Sri Lanka chose their preferred ball.

Global Effects of the Rule Change

Teams like Australia, New Zealand, West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have all seen slower scoring rates during death overs since this rule was introduced.

• West Indies death over run-rate drop: 2.39 runs per over

Individual bowlers are also benefiting. West Indies’ Alzarri Joseph has seen an 84% increase in swing late in games, lowering his bowling average from 24.1 to 17.4.

Lungi Ngidi from South Africa improved as well, with his average falling to 13 and economy dropping from 9.34 to 6 following a 63.3% boost in swing.

Others with notable increases include New Zealand’s Nathan Smith, Pakistan’s Naseem Shah, and Bangladesh’s Mustafizur Rahman, each experiencing varied results.

Pakistan’s Shaheen Afridi, known for his death-over swing (averaging 1.3 degrees since the change), remains a key threat alongside Naseem Shah, especially in the ongoing tri-series against England and Sri Lanka.

England’s Jofra Archer leads his side in late-swing effectiveness, averaging 0.97 degrees—a 37% rise.

What Could This Mean for the World Cup?

Reverse swing isn’t equally prominent everywhere yet. England has witnessed a 63% increase in ball movement during death overs since the rule change.

Bangladesh has seen a 33% jump, with matches in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan also showing more late movement—important since these countries host upcoming games.

Australia and South Africa, where next year’s World Cup will take place, have seen smaller effects so far. Only three ODIs have been played in South Africa since the change, making predictions tricky.

South African venues already feature relatively high late-innings movement and scoring rates around 7.35 runs per over, but if reverse swing spikes further, teams might need to accelerate their scoring earlier in innings.

Statistics are up to date prior to the ODI tri-series involving Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and England.