Champions League 2023: PSG's Quest for Three-Peat Amid Arsenal's Rise

The Champions League lights are back on. Madrid awaits on 5 June, the trophy polished and ready, and once again the question hangs over Europe: who dares take it off Paris St-Germain?

PSG are chasing history, aiming for a third straight crown as the new league phase kicks off on Tuesday. Two in a row already puts them in rare air. Three would place them in a different universe.

“If PSG do the three-peat, it would be an incredible achievement. I don't think they will do it,” he says. “Two in a row is already special – three in a row is impossible unless you've got Cristiano Ronaldo in your team, which they don't.”

They should still go deep. Laurens expects at least a semi-final, but sees the mountain steepening with every step towards that third title.

England sends five clubs to try and bring PSG down, with Arsenal carrying the weight of expectation after last season’s run to the final. The Gunners, in Laurens’ eyes, are the side best placed to finish the job this time.

“I would go for Bayern Munich and Arsenal to reach the final,” he explains. “They are probably the teams, other than PSG, who have deserved to be there the most in the past two seasons. To win it, I'll go for Arsenal. They have the best defence in Europe by far and that's what wins you titles.”

His bracket? Arsenal to lift the trophy, Bayern as “close runners-up”, PSG in the last four. Real Madrid under Jose Mourinho, for now, sit outside his inner circle of trust.

PSG’s strain, Barcelona’s surge, Arsenal’s release

Guillem Balague sees a different kind of tension around the holders. PSG’s start to the season has been uneven, the strain of staying on top already visible.

“With PSG's irregular start to the season we are seeing how difficult it is to maintain the level,” he says. Luis Enrique refuses to ease off, demanding high-tempo, aggressive football and relentless pressing. The league phase, in his mind, is a laboratory. That means experiments, tactical tweaks, and a few strange results before the serious business begins in January.

“As the main axis is there, I expect them to get very close to winning it again,” Balague adds. The core remains. So does the threat.

But the wind is also blowing strongly in Catalonia. “Barcelona are flying,” he says. Hansi Flick still wants another centre-back and a number nine to truly complete the squad, but he already sees a team climbing fast towards the elite.

Arsenal, Balague notes, have crossed an important psychological line. They have learned how to win regularly, and that weight coming off their shoulders has unlocked something in the squad.

“Players feel a release that will make them play better,” he says. In his mind, PSG, Barcelona and Arsenal should all reach the semi-finals – as long as the draw does not force them together earlier. The final spot, again draw permitting, falls to one of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Manchester City.

The players who can tilt Europe

Laurens picks out five names he believes will shape this season’s competition.

• Jude Bellingham sits at the top of that list. This is a defining campaign for him at Real Madrid, operating as a number 10 under Mourinho in a role Laurens believes fits him perfectly. After a superb World Cup, he expects the momentum to roll on: more goals, more authority, more decisive nights.
• Then there is Nico Paz at Como. Wearing the number 10 and orchestrating everything with the ball, he stands at the heart of a club tasting the Champions League for the first time. With Cesc Fabregas on the touchline, Como have become one of the most watchable sides in the competition. Paz, Laurens insists, is “very much in the making” but destined to be a top player soon.
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, “Mr Champions League” in Laurens’ words, has been electric for PSG over the last two seasons, devastating from the left, able to cut in or go outside, dangerous with both feet, technically brilliant and a constant threat. He sees the Georgian firmly in the Ballon d’Or conversation and as one of those rare players who lifts spectators out of their seats. “He's the guy.”
• Lens return to the Champions League after pushing PSG all the way in Ligue 1, and at the centre of their rise stands Ismaelo Ganiou. At 21, the powerful, quick, ball-playing centre-back already looks too big for his current stage. Laurens expects a Premier League giant to move for him at the end of the season.
• Then comes Donyell Malen. Since leaving Aston Villa for Roma, he has exploded under Gian Piero Gasperini, scoring at close to a goal per game as a lone striker. Roma’s return to the Champions League brings their attacking flair back into the spotlight, and Laurens believes this campaign will show Malen back at his very best.

Balague’s list of potential game-changers starts with a familiar name.

• Harry Kane, now leading the line for Bayern Munich, is on a clear Ballon d’Or mission. Balague feels he fully deserves to be in that conversation and does not see his level dropping, such is the natural fit between Kane’s game and Bayern’s style.
• At Barcelona, teenager Lamine Yamal is ravenous for more. He has set his sights on the Champions League stage, and in Flick’s high, aggressive defensive system, Balague expects him to shine.
• Kvaratskhelia appears again in Balague’s thoughts. He believes the PSG star still has another gear to find and, with the holders likely to go far, expects him to drag them through tight games and decide major nights. A future Ballon d’Or winner, in his view.
• Shakhtar’s tradition of turning Brazilian prospects into major European transfers continues with 20-year-old Kaua Elias, who Balague tips as the next big export.
• And then there is Martin Odegaard. After an injury-hit campaign last season, the Arsenal captain has started this one strongly. Balague sees a player capable of dictating games for a side now brimming with confidence – and a team that will need him to embrace that leadership.

Fabregas’ bold project and the outsiders’ ceiling

Beyond the giants, the new format throws a spotlight on a handful of ambitious projects.

Balague is fascinated by what Fabregas is building at Como and by the Spaniard’s decision to stay, despite serious offers over the last two years. That security, he believes, gives Fabregas the freedom to push his ideas, take risks and keep evolving without fear.

“He can get it wrong and nothing will happen, which gives the freedom to keep developing his ideas,” Balague says. In his eyes, Fabregas has gone against the grain and now finds himself at the forefront of modern coaching. The reward? He expects Como to reach the knock-out stages.

LASK, who eliminated Celtic, have already shown their competitive edge. Balague sees a home win somewhere and a respectable points total as a realistic return for their first Champions League campaign, but doubts they will progress.

Sabah, from Azerbaijan, intrigue him too. Built on organisation, they now face a brutal introduction: trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, and home dates with Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund. Balague predicts one or two shocks, but not enough to survive the league phase.

Then there is Viking. Drawn against Bayern, Atletico, Napoli and Aston Villa, they face a brutal section on paper, yet Balague points to the intelligence and competitiveness that runs through Norwegian football. He believes they have enough about them to dream of the knock-outs.

So the stage is set. PSG’s dynasty under threat, Arsenal’s defence sharpened for one more step, Barcelona rising fast, Bayern armed with Kane, Real Madrid reshaped under Mourinho, City lurking. New stars are ready to break through, old ones are chasing the Ballon d’Or, and a handful of outsiders are plotting to crash the party.

By the time Madrid rolls into early June, will we be talking about a three-peat, a new English champion, or a changing of the guard in Europe?